Water AetherwingTier 2
at GOAT RDO Store Championship
decks
3
(9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
4-6-3
overall winrate
42.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.6%
avg ELO -6.0 per match
expected value
46.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1325
· median 1405
· range 1151–1418
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1150
Q3 1383
1492
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 15.6% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.9% | -4.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.2% | -7.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.3% | -23.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
